During the night session, the upbeat sentiment in the tin market gradually faded, and trading overall presented a sluggish pattern characterized by "price without market." [SMM Tin Morning News]

SMM Tin Morning Brief on November 17, 2025:

Futures: The most-traded SHFE tin contract (SN2512) saw its high night session sentiment gradually fade, with tin prices falling on reduced positions after opening, then stabilizing around the 290,000 yuan mark.

Macro: (1) Samsung Electronics announced on Sunday that it will add a new chip production line at its Pyeongtaek plant in South Korea to meet growing demand driven by the global AI boom. The South Korean chipmaker stated that mass production will begin in 2028 and it plans to make additional infrastructure investments to support the expanded operations. (2) According to Yonhap News Agency, Hyundai Motor Group said on the 16th that it will invest 125.2 trillion won (approximately 611.1 billion yuan) domestically over five years from next year until 2030. This far exceeds the group's domestic investment from 2021 to 2025 (89.1 trillion won), setting a record high. The investment areas include future new projects such as AI, software-defined vehicles (SDV), electrification, robotics, and hydrogen energy (50.5 trillion won); R&D for future mobility (38.5 trillion won); and construction and maintenance of facilities (36.2 trillion won). Through this medium and long-term investment, Hyundai Motor Group aims to secure future growth drivers for the enterprise, cultivate AI and robotics industries, develop a green energy ecosystem, and strengthen South Korea's position as a global mobility innovation hub. The group will also provide assistance to Hyundai and Kia's partners regarding U.S. tariffs, expanding mutually beneficial cooperation. (3) Ronbay Technology announced that it signed a cooperation agreement with CATL, under which CATL will designate Ronbay Technology as its primary supplier of sodium-ion battery cathode powder. According to the agreement, CATL commits to purchasing no less than 60% of its total procurement volume annually, and if the annual procurement volume reaches 500,000 mt or more, Ronbay Technology will offer more favorable prices through cost reductions. The signing of this agreement is expected to have a positive impact on the company's future operating performance. However, there may be risks that the agreement cannot be fulfilled on schedule or in full during its execution. The signing of this cooperation agreement aims to further leverage the parties' expertise and resource advantages in the industrial field, striving to build a safer, lower-carbon new energy battery industry ecosystem. The two parties will establish cooperation in strategic goal alignment, long-term product supply, and new product development.

Fundamentals: (1) Supply-side disruptions: Overall tin ore supply is tightening in major production areas like Yunnan, and most smelters are expected to maintain relatively stable production in November. (2) Demand side: Orders have significantly decreased due to weak demand in the consumer electronics and home appliance markets. Downstream procurement remained cautious, with high prices significantly suppressing actual consumption. Emerging sectors provided limited boosts: although the increase in AI computing power and growth in PV installations drove some tin consumption, their current contribution scale remains small and insufficient to fill the gap left by declining consumption in traditional sectors.

Spot market: Last week, tin prices overall showed a pattern of retreating after a rapid rise. From the beginning of the week to mid-week, supported by expectations of tight supply and low inventory, prices rose continuously, with a particularly sharp surge on Thursday (November 13), when the single-day increase reached 2.27%, and the most-traded SHFE tin contract price approached the 300,000 yuan/mt mark. However, by Friday (November 14), as the suppressive effect of high prices on demand became evident and some bulls took profits, tin prices pulled back, falling 1.77% for the day. In the spot market, trading this week overall presented a sluggish pattern of "nominal prices without actual market activity." Traders, facing high costs, showed strong willingness to hold prices firm, keeping offers at high levels. However, downstream enterprises had low acceptance of the current tin prices, procured extremely cautiously, only maintaining small rigid restocking orders, leading to noticeably insufficient actual trading activity. After tin prices rose rapidly to high levels, they significantly dampened the purchase willingness of downstream enterprises. Additionally, some invisible inventory entered the market stimulated by prices, and although demand in emerging sectors showed resilience, demand in traditional areas like consumer electronics remained weak. Overall consumption follow-up was limited, failing to fully absorb supply, resulting in a slight accumulation of inventory.

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